Almond Market Report - May 12, 2009
Today the Almond Board of California reports:
April 2009 shipments were 111.7 million lbs.
- About 17% above April 2008 shipments of 95.5 million
- Domestic shipments were off 3% and exports were up 27%
Prices firmed for much of April as we saw continued heavy demand. NASS’ estimate from Friday came as a surprise to most and the market has been less active since it’s release.
SHIPMENTS/DEMAND:
Shipments are up 6.2% for the season (since August). While shipments are up nearly 17% for the month, we look back at the past 4 months to gauge current demand. For the period Jan 1 to April 30 2009, shipments are up an average of 15.5% versus the same period last year. The same emerging markets continue to bring the key growth while the EU remains sluggish.
If shipments continue up by 6.2%, the industry’s carry-out will be about 458 million lbs. If shipments continue up by 15.5%, the carry out will be about 431 million lbs.
THE 2009 CROP / NASS Estimate:
The estimate released Friday was for 1.45 Billion lbs. on 710,000 bearing acres, estimated to be down 10% compared with last season’s 1.61 billion lbs (2008 crop receipts are not finalized yet). The per acre yield is estimated to be down 14%, from 2370 to 2040/acre, but there is an estimated additional 30,000 bearing acres.
These figures come as a surprise, as we believe most in the industry were expecting an estimate in the range of 1.25 to 1.35 billion lbs.
POSSIBLE SUPPLY/DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR THE ‘09 SEASON:
| GROWTH OF 6.2% * | GROWTH OF 15.5% * | ||
| CARRY-IN | 457.9 | 430.9 | |
| RECEIPTS (NET)** | 1406.5 | 1406.5 | |
| TOTAL SUPPLY | 1864.4 | 1837.4 | |
| SHIPMENTS | 1422.2 | 1577.9 | |
| CARRY-OUT | 442.2 | 259.5 | |
| *GROWTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 2008 CROP YEAR AND ALL OF 2009 CROP YEAR**1406.5 NET BASED ON 1450 GROSS WITH 3% LOSS & EXEMPT | |||
CONCLUSION:
These possible scenarios assume the 1.45 billion lbs. is accurate, while the number is just a subjective estimate based off phone calls to growers, and it could easily be off by 150 million lbs. (10%) or more in either direction (as it was for the ‘08 crop and some other prior years). That fact combined with reviewing the above two (of many possible) scenarios, reminds us that there are many unknowns at this time regarding the balance of supply and demand. We should also keep in mind that shipments grew by 16.6% during the 2006 crop year and 18.3% during the 2007 crop year, with much higher prices during those years, and thus we do not think continued 15.5% growth is a wildly optimistic scenario. We anticipate we may see less market activity in the weeks leading up to the NASS objective crop estimate, due for release on June 30.
For more information, contact Paul Ewing
