NASS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE 2009
Today the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) division of the USDA released the 2009 objective estimate of 1.35 Billion lbs. This is down almost 7% from the subjective estimate of 1.45 billion lbs. and down about 16% from last year’s crop of 1.61.
Unlike the subjective report, this one contains scientific data to help us evaluate expected kernel sizing and more. Average kernel weight for all varieties is estimated to be 10% above last season, with sizing similar to the 2006 crop. Reviewing all varieties and districts, the kernels are expected to be longer, wider, and thicker than last season. Based on the data for NASS we anticipate average sizing for Nonpareil and Carmel types to be around 23/25 or possibly even larger. Butte variety was found to be the smallest, and showed the least increase in size from the previous season, of just 4.4% larger. With reasonable sizing expected for Padre (1.32 grams vs. 1.23 last season) and good sizing for many California varieties (1.62 grams vs. 1.41), the over-supply of small kernels could come back into balance much better than we had thought.
A copy of the actual NASS report is available at: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Fruits_and_Nuts/200906almom.pdf
We believe the subjective estimate of 1.45 billion lbs. was built into pricing in the weeks leading up to today’s report. Thus, we believe pricing will likely increase following today’s report, for both crop years but more so for new crop than current, given the anticipated carry out volume.
The position report for June should be released next Thursday, July 9.
