Almond Market Report - July 9, 2009

Posted on July 9th, 2009

Today the Almond Board of California reports:

June 2009 shipments were 118.4 million lbs.
-  15.3% above June 2008 shipments of 102.7 million - the previous record
- Domestic shipments were up 10.8% and exports were up 17.4%

During the past week the market has been firming following the release of the NASS estimate.  Since June 30 prices are up about .10 to .20/lb. depending on the variety and size.

SHIPMENTS/DEMAND:

Shipments are up 9% for the season (since August) and up 18.5% in the past 6 months (since Jan 1).  Once again the industry was expecting a reasonably strong June shipment figure but not 118 million lbs. 

THE 2009 CROP:

Growing conditions have continued to be good.  Cooler temperatures have contributed to slower development and at this point we estimate the crop to be running about 1-2 weeks late.  This is demonstrated in the above photo taken today of a limb on an outside row.  With normal crop timing, these hulls would have already been fully split. 

POSSIBLE SUPPLY/DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR THE ‘09 SEASON:

OUTLOOK:

The above possible scenarios are very different from those we considered just 2 months ago.  However, we must remember that the 1.35 is an estimate with, as NASS mentioned, “80 percent confidence interval from 1,219 million meat pounds to 1,481 million meat pounds.”  This supply range, even if it were nearly 100% accurate instead of 80%, provides many different supply/demand scenarios to consider in addition to those above.  Nevertheless, the 1.35 estimate brought the supply scenarios into a much lower range, which has been giving buyers and particularly sellers a lot more confidence in the market.  We believe that both the fundamentals and market sentiment are very strong at this time.

The next position report is due to be released August 11, 2009

For more information, contact Paul Ewing