Almond Market Report - August 11, 2009
Today the Almond Board of California reports: 
July 2009 shipments were 121 million lbs.
- 21.6% above July 2008 shipments of 99.5 million - the previous record
- Domestic shipments were up 18.3% and exports were up 23.3%
Things quieted down during late July as usual for that time of year. Market activity has continued to be inconsistent from day to day.
SHIPMENTS/DEMAND:
July was the 6th straight month of record shipments. The industry ended the crop year with shipments up just over 10% from the previous crop year. Most of the shipment increase came from the Middle East (up 51%), North Africa (up 140%) and Asia (up 37%).
THE 2009 CROP:
Growing conditions have continued to be favorable. Mother Nature has helped the crop make up for lost time and we expect to harvest in our area at similar timing to last season. Nonpareil harvesting is already well underway down south and we are receiving initial deliveries. There are very preliminary and undocumented reports of increased insect damage in the southern region. It is still too early to make estimations about quality, quantity, or sizing beyond what we know from the NASS report.
OUTLOOK:
This month’s shipment figures helped to end the crop year on a very positive note. The carryout was reduced to just about 407 million lbs. when just as recent as last Spring many were talking a carry out in the range of 500 million lbs.
If we continue to achieve an average of 10% growth in shipments during next season, and assume the crop is similar to what is estimated by NASS, we will have a carry out into the 2010 crop in the range of 200 million pounds.
With the continued large shipments and potential for such a significant swing in fundamentals, one would expect more of an increase in pricing but the current level of carry out seems to be “the anchor” that has held pricing from rising.
The next position report is due to be released September 10, 2009
For more information, contact Paul Ewing
