Almond Market Report - September 10, 2009
Today the Almond Board of California reports:
August 2009 shipments were 123.7 million lbs.
- 28% above August 2008 shipments of 96.7 million - the previous record
- Domestic shipments were up 17.3% and exports were up 33.6%
The market has generally been fairly steady the past few weeks. We’ve seen some price increases for Cals and Carmels, especially higher qualities as demand has grown for these, some of the growth due to buyers switching from Nonpareil. NP pricing came off for the same reason.
SHIPMENTS/DEMAND:
This was a very impressive month and surprised us, again. The larger carry-in into this season, as well as greater willingness among sellers to sell for August rather than for new crop, undoubtedly contributed to such a large shipping month. We have seen steady demand lately from the Middle East, China, and Europe.
THE 2009 CROP:
Harvest is progressing smoothly. Yield reports so far are all across the board but overall point to a Nonpareil crop similar to what NASS estimated. Nonpareil insect damage is higher than last season - our receipts are running about 1.5% with a wide variation between orchards. Kernel sizing varies considerably by region with generally larger sizes being received as you go further north. Our average Nonpareil size received is 23/25.
OUTLOOK:
These August shipment figures come at an important time as buyers and sellers have tried to figure out where the market will head. One concern is if such strong August shipments could be due to shipments of product traditionally shipped during September and/or October. Such enormous growth of 28% is not sustainable, as just 10% growth would lead to a carry-out in the range of 200 million lbs. and 17% growth would lead to carry-out in the range of 100 million lbs. 
The industry sentiment for several months has been that sellers have been very undersold (likewise buyers very under-bought) for the 2009 crop. Today’s report shows commitments of 452 million lbs. vs. 396 million last season, so really we are not off to a slow start. Total committed & shipped on August 31 was 33.4% of projected supply (carry-in plus receipts) for the 2009 crop.
Going forward we expect more focus on predictions for an El Nino weather pattern this winter. According to government reports there is increased likelihood for rain during our bloom period (February and early March). After 3 years of drought, the wet weather is welcomed, though growers still hope for a dry enough bloom to be able to set an average or better 2010 crop. Very detailed info on expected weather patterns can be found at the Climate Prediction Center website.
Today’s shipment news may cause prices to firm.
The next position report is due to be released October 9, 2009
For more information, contact Paul Ewing
