Almond Update
Today the Almond Board of California reported: 
April 2010 shipments were 105.6 million lbs.
- Down 5.4% from April 2009 shipments of 111.7 million
- Domestic shipments were up 16% and exports were down 14%
The market has remained inactive for the past month. There have been fewer buyers than sellers which put downward pressure on pricing.
SHIPMENTS/DEMAND:
Today’s report brings shipments for the season to 1.17 billion vs. 1.03 billion at this time last season, up 13.5%. The 11 million lb. decline in exports for April can be accounted for almost entirely by China’s decline of 9 million lbs.. This market continues to work through inventory. Buyers in several markets are covering their needs hand to mouth, which could result in continued lower shipments for the short-term, though this is not necessarily reflective of a consumption change. There is limited time left for the Middle East to cover their Ramadan needs. One of the big questions is how much European buyers still need to cover out of current crop.
THE 2009 CROP:
Crop receipts as of April 30 were 1.400 billion lbs, up 3.5% from the NASS objective estimate of 1.350
THE 2010 CROP:
Two NASS reports were released earlier this week, the actual reports are available online: NASS 2009 Acreage Report & NASS 2010 Subjective Crop Estimate
Bearing acreage estimate is 740,000 acres, up 2.7% from the 2009 crop acreage of 720,000 acres.
The subjective crop estimate is 2070 lbs. per acre, totaling 1.53 billion lbs. The outlook on the 2010 crop has improved over the past several weeks, but 1.53 was still on the high side of expectations. The objective estimate, due June 30, is more scientific and believed to be more accurate.
OUTLOOK:
Expectations are for a 2010 crop supply situation similar to what we have experienced this season. A larger crop but less carry-in. This would allow for very limited shipment growth next season, and require high enough pricing to minimize shipment growth. Market sentiment has been hurting the market lately. Many in the industry agree that 1.53 is a very manageable number, if not too little, and the fundamentals point to a firm market for the coming crop year.
The next position report is due June 10.
For more information please contact Paul Ewing
