Current Market Report

Market Report Archive

Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety 5/24/04

Ewing Appointed Head of Sales 3/29/04

FDA Approves Qualified Health Claim 7/16/03

Billion Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03

Letter to the trade 1/10/03

Market Report - April 16th 2004

2004 Bloom:

During the beginning couple weeks of the bloom, California experienced very poor weather.  The rain decreased bee activity which decreased pollination for those early bloom varieties like Nonpareil.  Prices quickly rose during this time, about .15/lb.  During the later part of the bloom, for California types and other late blooming varieties, weather was excellent with very warm weather.  This combined with little market activity brought the market back down approximately .10/lb. for
current crop and .15/lb. for new crop.
 
March Shipments:

On April 8, shipments by California almond handlers for the month of March were reported at 81.99 million pounds, up approximately 27% from March 2003 shipments of 64.55 million.  The industry was stunned by the numbers, considering the significantly higher prices this year.
 
Some of the causes for such a strong market:

• Increasing awareness of health benefits of almonds
• Increasing uses have been discovered and implemented for almonds.
• Still fairly weak USD
• High prices of substitutes like Turkish hazelnuts, U.S. pistachios, etc.
• Huge growth of quantity demanded in select emerging markets like Russia
  

New Crops:

It's still quite uncertain how this new crop will turn out in California.  Estimates have been made across the board, from 1.13 billion to 950 million pounds on 212,000 bearing hectares.  Many growers are saying Nonpareil was not hit as hard as originally thought, and California varieties are looking very good.  Most expect around 1 billion.
 
Spanish crop is expected to be even worse than last year after having been hit by a second freeze, possibly eliminating virtually the entire crop except for limited acreage on Majorca.  Some of the other Mediterranean crops look good, but not nearly enough to make up for the low production expected from Spain.
 
Short Term:

Market has certainly gained strength and prices may begin increasing slightly.
 
Currently we are pricing most sizes of NPS at 2.25/lb. FAS and Butte SSR 27/30 at 2.10/lb., for both current and the coming 2004 crop.  We have some large sized Carmel SSR available at 2.15/lb.  Most blanched ABC's are at 2.55/lb. 
 
Long Term:

Last year, removals of old orchards in California have been off-set by plantings of new, more densely planted orchards.  New plantings in California are expected to be at least 25,000 - 30,000 hectares this year.  These plantings combined with improved farming practices and better technology should lead to some very good sized crops within a few years.  Most say that by the 2006 season production potential in California should have increased dramatically.  This ought to bring
prices back down and allow more room for market growth.
 
The next big news will be the CASS subjective estimate for the 2004 California crop, due May 10.
 
We would appreciate any feedback on how often you would prefer to receive our reports, as well as your thoughts on the current situation and the future of almonds in your particular market.

©2004 Hilltop Ranch, Inc.