Current Market Report

Market Report Archive

Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety 5/24/04

Ewing Appointed Head of Sales 3/29/04

FDA Approves Qualified Health Claim 7/16/03

Billion Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03

Letter to the trade 1/10/03

Market Report - May 13th 2004

At this year's International Tree Nut Convention, on May 10th, the
CASS (California Agricultural Statistics Service) announced the
subjective estimate for the 2004 California almond crop.  Based on
surveys from 281 growers, they estimate the crop at 1.1 billion pounds
(almost 500 million kg.).  The big surprise for most was the estimated
acreage, now set at 550,000 acres (220,000 hectares) - about 3.7% more
than we expected.  Details can be found at the CASS website. See:

California Almond Forecast, 2004

Spain's almond crop is estimated at just 16,000 MT and Turkey's at
10,000 MT.  Based off of these estimates, California should produce
approximately 88 percent of the world's almond supply.  Total world
supply is only expected to increase by 2%.  Meanwhile demand has been
growing at a much faster pace.  Since 1980, consumption has grown at an
annual compounded average of 5.7 percent.  We think this size of a crop
is exactly what the industry needs to help feed the growing demand.

Even better news for the industry is that the crop is expected to come
in approximately 2 weeks earlier than it did last year.  Great weather
in the later part of the bloom and beyond really helped the nuts
develop well.  We believe the early harvest will help keep the
momentum going for heavy shipments and growing demand.  This is
especially needed with the minimal carryover we are expecting this
year, and the short Spanish crop.  An early harvest will help cover
the very early season needs in Europe, which have traditionally been
met by the Spanish crop, and would have been lost consumption this
season. 

Prices of most competing nuts remain quite strong.  Our industry hopes
demand for California almonds will grow as buyers gain more
appreciation for the reliability California suppliers provide.  We
have received such feedback after many contracts were not filled for
hazelnuts, pistachios, and other competing commodities last season.

The market remains strong in California.  Shipments for April 2004 were
higher than those of April 2003.  Most growers are holding to their
prices and are not willing to discount at this time.  Many buyers are
waiting for prices to come down some, and at current prices are
expected to be buying just what they need for prompt usage and
distribution - "buying hand to mouth."  We expect a quiet market for a
while.  The next big announcements will be the report for May
shipments, and the CASS objective estimate on June 30.

Please feel free to visit the news section of our website often as we
will be posting estimates, market reports, and other announcements
shortly after they are released.

Best Regards,

Paul Ewing
Hilltop Ranch, Inc.

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©2004 Hilltop Ranch, Inc.