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Market
Report - June 30th 2004
2004 OBJECTIVE CROP
ESTIMATE
The objective
estimate of the 2004
California almond crop was announced today by the Almond Board of
California as 1.08 billion lbs. on 550,000 bearing acres. This
estimate is about 1.8% below the subjective estimate released May 10.
When accounting for the usual estimate of 4% loss & exempt (due
to insect damage, blanching loss, and processing loss), the
marketable new crop will be around 1.037 billion lbs. With expected
shipments over 1 billion both this season and next, we think this is
a good number for the industry and about what was expected from the
trade. Spain’s crop is still expected to be a disaster, off at
least 30 million lbs. from last year. Thus, world production will be
essentially unchanged from the 03-04 crop year. In the short-term we
do not expect too much of a change in market prices, but probably a
little more activity.
Since our last report
the market has
been very quiet as expected. New crop prices for California and
other varieties except the Nonpareil have been trading below current
prices. The Nonpareil prices have remained fairly steady for new
crop and very strong for what remains of current crop.
For the CASS report, click here.
FOOD SAFETY UPDATE
Since the recent
recalls were
announced, the Almond Board of California has been working closely
with the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) to address food safety
concerns and work out a solution to eliminate consumer exposure to
microbial contamination in raw almonds. They’re setting up a plan
to transition the industry during the coming crop year. By the 2005
crop year we expect that all handlers will required to subject raw
almonds to a lethal process that achieves a 5-log reduction.
We are performing
Salmonella testing of
samples from all shipments leaving Hilltop Ranch. On our
certificates of analysis we have added new information demonstrating
the results of our testing, stating “salmonella: negative.” Through
meetings with the Almond Board and government officials we
have come to realize that testing for salmonella does not assure that
the product is salmonella-free. This would require testing 100% of
the individual almond kernels, which would leave us without any
product to ship. It’s now widely accepted that a lethal process is
needed.
At Hilltop Ranch we
are now in a
re-design phase to achieve this 5-log reduction with our pasteurizer.
Microbiologist, Charlie Jahn, recently joined Hilltop Ranch as
Quality Assurance Manager. He has been working with independent
consultants, the National Food Lab, and government authorities to
improve our pasteurization process and achieve validation.
Domestic consumption
doesn’t appear
to have been significantly harmed by the recent recalls. It’s
estimated that just over 1% of consumers may lower or stop their
purchases of almonds due to recent negative press.
We are interested to
receive your
feedback and address any of your concerns regarding the changes being
made in the industry’s approach to quality assurance.
Best Regards,
Paul Ewing
Director of Sales
Hilltop Ranch, Inc.
For
more information, contact Paul
Ewing
directly.
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©2004
Hilltop Ranch, Inc.
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