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Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety
5/24/04 Billion
Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03
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Market
Report - February 8th 2005
Shipments reported for January 2005 were 77.6 million lbs., just slightly higher than the figures from January 2004. Total shipments for the year are up 2.69%. The domestic market is up 13.29%, while exports are down by 1.29%. DEMAND: Our understanding for the US market at least is that there has been very little resistance at the consumer level as of yet. However it’s well known that the consumer still hasn’t seen the full extent of these price increases, about USD 2.85 to 3.00/lb. parity seems to have been passed on so far. We think the main driving factor to the robust demand is the health message getting out there. The following article from a local newspaper is about all nuts and is a good example of the “free press” spreading the health message: http://www.modbee.com/life/taste/story/9706461p-10588443c.html You can also find a recent press release on the benefits specific to almonds at: http://www.almondboard.com/News/pressreleasedetail.cfm?ItemNumber=1151 While the consumers may continue to demand almonds, some food manufacturers are looking for ways to use less. The high prices of other nuts have made this more difficult thus far. The USD is showing signs of strength, which has temporarily kept some overseas buyers out of the marketplace. CROP SIZE: Net receipts reported to the Almond Board are shown at 988.4 million lbs. in today’s report. We think the final crop size may include an additional 5-8 million lbs. BLOOM: Overall the bud set and the trees are looking fine. Our main concern is for the older orchards of the Nonpareil variety. The bud set on the lower part of the trees doesn’t look good and we expect less Nonpareil tonnage as a result. The lack of bees and high prices of bee hives for pollination has greatly reduced the amount that will be in the orchards this bloom. This should only really be damaging for next year’s crop if we don’t have many days of sunshine. UNCOMMITTED 2004 CROP: The remaining uncommitted portion of 273 million lbs. is 15% less than the amount at this time last year. With the overall US supply estimated to be over 3% down from last year, shipments up 2.69%, and very high committed levels, we see such a tight supply between now and the new crop that we expect prices to remain firm for the short term. How firm new crop prices stay will depend upon many factors including the USD, prices of competing nuts, and the outlook for Mediterranean almond crops for the fall. Spain has had the coldest winter in over 100 years, which will delay their bloom and reduce the possibility of another frost. Over the past month new crop prices have been gradually increasing, though not necessarily along the same timing as current crop, and are currently at approximately a $0.40/lb. discount. Best Regards, Paul Ewing Director of Sales Hilltop Ranch, Inc. For more information, contact Paul Ewing directly. ©2005 Hilltop Ranch, Inc. |
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