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Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety
5/24/04 Billion
Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03
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Market
Report - March 8th 2005
Shipments reported for February 2005 were just over 69 million lbs.
For the earlier blooming Nonpareil we believe the bloom went very poorly. It was rushed, caused by the warm weather. We had a lot of rain and thus very little opportunity for bee activity. We think Nonpareils will have a weaker crop next season and make up a smaller percentage of the total crop. We received mixed reports in the field for the Monterey/Carmel types, but are confident they will produce decently next year. The Butte/Padre and other later, hard shell varieties experienced good weather and should set a good crop. It’s still early to tell and we think the crop will not have been fully made for a few weeks. We’re guessing the crop will be similar to the one we just had in 2004. Overall consensus in the industry though is for a crop similar or a decent amount less than last year. BLOOM’S AFFECT ON THE MARKET: We have seen a lot of volatility in the market in the last four weeks, mainly for new crop. Going into the bloom most BS5 trading from origin was around the 2.85 FAS level. As the rains began the week of February 14th more sellers began disappearing from the market and prices began to rise. We would’ve put BS5 at 2.93 on Feb 17, 3.00 Feb 18th and they continued up as high as 3.25. Once the rain stopped prices began settling back down and we saw second hand trading at Europe below 3.00 again by March 1st. They’ve since climbed to around 3.15 - 3.25, with the only reports of actual trading being toward the lower end of the range. GOING FORWARD: The prices of competing nuts will continue to play a very important factor. Many snack manufacturers have told us how they’re re-calculating their formulas to use more cashews and are carefully watching hazelnut prices to do the same. We think today’s shipment number release will not have too much affect on the market. Had the numbers been higher than last year’s for the month of February, we think the market could have increased further. For the short term we expect fairly stable prices on current crop. If shipments don’t continue to slow down and the outlook for next year’s production continues to be pessimistic, we could see new crop prices rise to the same levels as current crop. Best Regards, Paul Ewing Director of Sales Hilltop Ranch, Inc. For more information, contact Paul Ewing directly. ©2005 Hilltop Ranch, Inc. |
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