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Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety
5/24/04 Billion
Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03
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Per the Almond Board of California position report released May 9th: Shipments reported for April 2005 were 58.1 million lbs. About 18.55% lower than the figures from April 2004. August 31st-April 30th shipments: Domestic shipments are up 8.88% Exports are down by 5.49% Overall shipments for the crop year are down by 1.37%. The subjective CASS estimate for the 2005 California almond crop is 850 million lbs. The estimate is based on survey results from 254 growers which make up about 16% of state-wide production. Estimated bearing acreage is 550,000 acres. For full details please visit: ftp://www.nass.usda.gov/pub/nass/ca/rpts/other/200505almpd.pdf SUPPLY & DEMAND ANALYSIS: 2002 Crop Carry In 81 Million Lbs. Receipts (Net) 1063 (1083 Gross) Total Supply 1144 Shipments 982 Carry Out 162 2003 Crop Carry In 162.04 Receipts (Net) 1011.14 (1032.94 Gross)* Total Supply 1173.18 Shipments 1024.28 Carry Out 148.9 * Adjusted September 9, 2004 by the Almond Board, reflecting 2.11% loss & exempt versus usual forecast for L&E of 4%. This added 19.55 million lbs. to the supply beginning August 1st 2004. 2004 Crop – Estimates Carry In 148.9 Receipts (Net) 957.9 (997.9 Gross) Total Supply 1106.8 Shipments 1000 Carry Out 106.8 2005 Crop – Very Preliminary Estimates Carry In 107 Receipts (Net) 816 (850 Gross) Total Supply 923 Shipments 823 – shipments allowed to achieve the desired minimal carry out Carry Out 100 – desired minimal carry out FURTHER CROP/SUPPLY INFO: Kernel sizes are significantly bigger than the current crop, but not as large as you might expect given the small crop size. We think it will be another disappointing year for huller turnouts, with a fairly high percentage of hull and shell in relation to the kernel weight. From the feedback we’ve received the crop has been developing well in Spain thus far. They could have a crop around 120 million lbs., which would help offset much of the decreased supply from the California. However, it is still uncertain and Spanish orchards are currently in need of much more rain than they’ve been receiving lately. THE GROWER RESERVE: More California almond tonnage is under control of its growers than ever before. The call pool contracting, where the individual growers decide when the processor can sell their tonnage, has become increasingly popular, partly because we’ve had a rising market for three years in a row. Because of the price trend many have been holding back tonnage, thus making a supply of 1 billion lbs. feel like 850 million lbs. If it continues next year an 850 million lb. crop could feel like 700 million lbs. Their self-imposed “reserve” has contributed to the volatility and upward price trend, and will likely contribute to the volatility and downward fall when one day, prices begin moving in the other direction. CONCLUSION: We believe much of the slowing in shipments is a result of end-users and distributors buying more hand to mouth, for cash flow and market risk reasons, rather than a slowing in consumer demand. In most markets the consumers still have not felt nearly the entire effect of these high prices. With only 157.7 million lbs. of uncommitted and unshipped almonds as of April 30th, we see very little downside potential for the current crop, particularly since we’re not expecting a bumper crop for the fall. We still don’t anticipate prices to decline significantly during the calendar year. We think the 850 million lb. estimate was more or less already factored into the current prices. Though, if too many buyers rush to cover as result of this CASS estimate, prices will likely increase further. The objective estimate is expected to be released CASS June 30th.
Best Regards, Paul Ewing Director of Sales Hilltop Ranch, Inc. For more information, contact Paul Ewing directly. ©2005 Hilltop Ranch, Inc. |
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