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Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety
5/24/04 Billion
Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03
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Per the Almond Board of California position report released today: Shipments reported for June 2005 were 66.1 million lbs. - About 10.3% lower than the figures from June 2004. August 1st - June 30th shipments: - Domestic shipments are up 7.27% - Exports are down by 6.24% - Overall shipments for the crop year are down by 2.17%. SUPPLY & DEMAND ANALYSIS: 2002 Crop * Adjusted September 9, 2004 by the Almond Board, reflecting 2.11% loss & exempt versus usual forecast for L&E of 4%. This added 19.55 million lbs. to the supply beginning August 1st 2004. 2004 Crop
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Estimates Shipments
1000 2005 Crop
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Preliminary Estimates NEW CROP: While we are yet to have any figures from the Almond Board regarding new crop commitments, we estimate that about 25% of the coming new crop has already been sold. Based off our estimated carry in to the 05 crop and the CASS’s estimated crop size, the industry will need to reduce shipments by about 15% for the coming crop year. The current all-time high prices should easily have that much of an effect and more in certain markets. China’s imports are already showing major decreases and we are expecting a significant decrease in imports into India with the coming crop year. We think it would be very difficult to see a 15% decrease in shipments into North America and that it will help make up for some of the major reductions in shipments to other markets. CURRENT CROP: With about 93 million lbs. of uncommitted inventory left and the expectation of a late crop by 1-2 weeks, we continue to see little downside potential for current crop pricing. We think today’s shipment figure release will have little if any impact on the market, which remains quiet. Best Regards, Paul Ewing Director of Sales Hilltop Ranch, Inc. For more information, contact Paul Ewing directly. ©2005 Hilltop Ranch, Inc. |
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