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Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety
5/24/04 Billion
Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03
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Per the Almond Board of California position reports: Shipments reported for October 2005 were 111.92 million lbs. This is approximately 13.8% below the OCT 04 figures. Shipments reported for November 2005 were 89.54 million lbs. This is approximately 13.4% below the NOV 04 figures. Overall shipments for the crop year are off 20.19% Crop receipts as of November 30 were 820.9 million lbs. versus 910.7 as of the end of November 2004. Overall the industry has been finishing up shelling much sooner than with the ‘04 crop, so we still expect the crop to come in below the 880 CASS estimate. We now estimate the crop will total around 860 million lbs. SUPPLY & DEMAND ANALYSIS: 2003 Crop Carry In 162.04 Million lbs. Receipts (Net) 1011.14 (1032.94 Gross) Total Supply 1173.18 Shipments 1024.28 Carry Out 148.9 2004 Crop Carry In 148.9 Receipts (Net) 958.116 (998.038 Gross) Total Supply 1106.8 Shipments 984 Carry Out 137.68 2005 Crop – Preliminary Estimates Carry In 137.68 Receipts (Net) 825.60 (860 Gross) Total Supply 963.28 Shipments 863.28* – shipments allowed to achieve the minimal carry out Carry Out 100 – minimal carry out * Above shipments would allow for about a 12.27% decrease in shipments. We think 100 million is the absolute minimum and 120 may be needed for a smooth transition. The market has softened further since the position report was released December 6. The 820.9 million lb. receipt figure was higher than many expected. The sentiment and momentum in the market have changed significantly in the other direction since September. It would require a poor pollination during bloom or evidence of a lot more demand to see prices bounce back much. The price decreases since the start of the season has not brought demand back yet and the price trend has actually decreased short-term demand. The continued hand-to-mouth buying by distributors and end-users along with any shorting of the market by traders has limited demand at the handler level. Eventually we anticipate seeing improved shipments to Europe compared with the early part of the fall, as Spain’s crop becomes less and less available. The Spanish crop came in lighter than expected and the majority of it has already been shipped or committed. Predictions for bloom weather and next year’s crop are all across the board. Some new bearing acreage will come into production next year but we will not see the significant increases until the 2007 crop. The 2006 crop is trading in limited quantities at a discount of about 25% to this year’s crop. Best Regards,Paul Ewing Director of Sales Hilltop Ranch, Inc. For more information, contact Paul Ewing directly. ©2005 Hilltop Ranch, Inc. |
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