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Current Market
Report
Market
Report Archive
Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety
5/24/04
Ewing Appointed
Head of
Sales 3/29/04
FDA
Approves Qualified
Health Claim
7/16/03
Billion
Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03
Letter
to the trade 1/10/03
New
Processing Facility 9/13/02
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Market
Report – August 9th,
2006
Per the latest Almond
Board of California position
report:
Shipments reported for
July 2006 were approximately 60.24
million lbs. This is approximately
10% above the July 2005 figures.
After holding stable for
a few weeks the current crop
pricing has eased off some recently. Demand
has been slower than usual for the past
month, particularly out
of Europe. There has been extremely
minimal selling pressure from growers for 2006 crop so the 2006 crop
pricing
has held up among handlers in California despite slow demand.
Even more than before
there is not a clear market level at
this time but in any case we are placing approximate market
levels below
for your reference:
2005 crop
NPS 25/27 AOL – USD
3.40/lb. - 748/220 FAS California
Carmel SSR 25/27 AOL –
3.10/lb. – 682/220
Cal SSR 27/30 AOL –
3.05/lb. – 671/220
STD5 – 2.70/lb. – 594/220
2006 crop
NPS 25/27 AOL – 2.65/lb.
– 583/220 FAS California
Carmel SSR 25/27 AOL –
2.35/lb. – 517/220
Cal SSR 27/30 AOL –
2.30/lb. – 506/220
STD5 – 2.15/lb. – 473/220
CROP UPDATE:
The crop is still
expected to harvest about 7-10 days later
than usual. Kernel sizes are projected
to be roughly two sizes smaller than last year and quality so far looks
good
overall. There are some growers that we
believe could be harvesting with less mature nuts than usual for
harvest time,
given the incentive of significant early delivery premiums, and this
brings up
some quality concerns for potentially premature harvesting of some
orchards.
SUPPLY & DEMAND
ANALYSIS:
2003
Crop
2004
Crop
Carry-In
162.04 Million lbs.
Carry-In
148.9
Receipts (Net) 1011.14 (1032.94 Gross) Receipts
(Net) 958.116 (998.038 Gross)
Total Supply 1173.18
Total
Supply 1106.8
Shipments 1024.28
Shipments 984
Carryout
148.9
Carryout
137.68
2005 Crop
2006 Crop –
Preliminary Estimates
Carry-In
137.68
Carry-In 98.72
Receipts (Net) 883.44 (910.758 Gross) Receipts
(Net) 1018.50 (1050 Gross)*
Total Supply 1021.12
Total
Supply
1117.22*
Shipments 914.23
Shipments
Carryout 98.72
Carryout
*Estimate only. Assumes crop size is in line with NASS’
objective
estimate.
DEMAND:
California’s monthly
shipment figures have been better than
the same months with the 2004 crop for the past five months.
The trend for
larger shipments every month is expected to
end with August shipments. The late
crop and minimal carry-in has left handlers with much less to offer
than
normal. Also, the price difference
between the two crop years is so significant that it has greatly
encouraged
buyers to delay their needs as much as possible and is contributing to
slower
demand for August.
Looking back over the
past four crop years we find it
interesting how little difference in shipments there has been
considering the
drastic differences in pricing. The
prices “to the trade” for the 2004 and 2005 crops both varied
from as
low as about USD 2.15/lb. averages among the varieties, to as high as
about a
4.10/lb. average.
Average prices in USD per
lb. to the grower for
edible portion of the crop years NASS have been:
2002 crop – 1.11/lb.
(shipped 982.36 million lbs.)
2003 crop – 1.57/lb.
(shipped 1024.68 million lbs.)
2004 crop – 2.21/lb.
(shipped 984.08 million lbs.)
2005 crop – 3.08/lb.
(shipped 914.23 million lbs.)
CONCLUSION:
There is room for
shipments for the coming crop
to easily grow by about 10%. Relative
to the past few crop years the industry faces overall cheaper competing
nuts
(particularly hazelnuts), a larger Spanish crop (which in itself will
contribute to about 8% more world supply vs. 2004 and about 3% vs.
2005), a
smaller carryout along with arguably emptier pipelines, and growers who
are
more in control of their crops and better financed to hold product off
the
market if they seem room for upward movement.
The potential bearish factors to watch for are – the
psychological impact of much greater potential (due to additional
bearing
acreage) for 2007 crop size if the bloom goes well, whether Spanish
processors
sell aggressively and take up early shipments, and if the crop comes in
bigger
than the estimate. A big potential
bullish factor to watch for is whether demand comes in very heavy for
the
Sept/Oct shipments. Demand has been
such a driving factor on pricing since 1999.
There is a big mix of bullish and bearish factors and no clear
direction
to the market. This mix of factors
combined with the great price swings of the past crop year have
contributed to
very cautious buyers and sellers and if this continues it will be a
very slow
marketing year, yet hopefully one with more stable pricing. Best
Regards,
Paul
Ewing
Director
of Sales
Hilltop
Ranch, Inc.
For
more information, contact Paul
Ewing
directly.
Previous Market Reports:
Market
Report Archive
©2006
Hilltop Ranch, Inc.
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