Current Market Report

Market Report Archive

Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety 5/24/04

Ewing Appointed Head of Sales 3/29/04

FDA Approves Qualified Health Claim 7/16/03

Billion Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03

Letter to the trade 1/10/03

Market Report – September 11th, 2006

Per the latest Almond Board of California position report: 

Shipments reported for August 2006 were approximately 58.71 million lbs.

This is about 2% above the August 2005 figures. 

The gap between 2005 and 2006 crops has gone away over the past 3-4 weeks.  Pricing overall has softened about .10/lb. and the premium for early shipments has been reduced as well.  There are not clear market levels yet.

CROP UPDATE:

The crop overall has been coming in about 7-10 days later than usual.  This is reflected in the Almond Board receipts portion of the position report that show crop receipts down about 29% versus last year as of August 31, even though the crop is expected to be about 15% larger than last year.  If the crop is assumed to be 1.05 billion lbs. then the 43.57 million lbs. received by August 31 would only be about 4.1% of the total crop size, less than half the 9.5% average over the past 5 crop years. 

So far quality overall is superior to recent crops.  We suspect that the very hot temperatures in late July helped dry the kernels away from their shells so they are now easily shelling and producing historically low chipping and scratching levels.   Serious damage findings in early receipts were very low but recently we began receiving lots from the southern region with much higher levels.  Most of the Nonpareils sized so far are sizing in the 23 to 30 ranges.  Yields so far seem to support NASS’ estimate. 

SUPPLY & DEMAND ANALYSIS:

2003 Crop                                                            2004 Crop
Carry-In................162.04 Million lbs.                    Carry-In................148.9
Receipts (Net)......1011.14 (1032.94 Gross)           Receipts (Net).......958.116 (998.038 Gross)
Total Supply.......1173.18                                    Total Supply.........1106.8
Shipments..........1024.28                                     Shipments ............984
Carryout .............148.9                                         Carryout ...............137.68

2005 Crop                                                     2006 Crop – Preliminary Estimates
Carry-In...............137.68                                        Carry-In................112.22*
Receipts (Net)......883.44 (910.758 Gross)              Receipts (Net)......1018.50 (1050 Gross)**
Total Supply.......1021.12                                     Total Supply........1130.72**
Shipments ..........914.23                                       Shipments ............
Carryout ..............112.22*                                     Carryout ................

*Reflects actual loss & exempt for the 2005 crop year (2.52% versus estimated 4%).
**Estimate only.  Assumes crop size is in line with NASS’ objective estimate.

DEMAND/SHIPMENTS:

California’s monthly shipment figures have been better than the same months with the previous crop year for the past six months.   August shipments being up just slightly over last year were a surprise to many in the industry who were expecting lower figures.  Though, next month’s report will be of much more significance.

CONCLUSION:

The same bullish and bearish factors remain in place and the main contributor to the softness in the market recently has been the slow demand.  Combined shipped and committed shipments currently total about 297 million lbs. or about 28% of a 1.05 billion lb. crop or about 26% of total supply for the season (including carry-in).  This figure of 26% shipped and committed shipments are low compared to 34% as of August 31 2005 and almost 38% as of August 31 2004.  We believe this is reflective of the hand to mouth buying approach taken by so many buyers.

In the past few weeks there has been more grower interest to sell though most have not been willing to sell at the market levels that have been trading around .10/lb. below their current expectations. 

By about this time next month we should have the September shipping figures available.  Many expect a strong shipment September figure and if we see one, this should change the momentum back in the other direction toward a more active and firm market. 

Previous Market Reports:

©2006 Hilltop Ranch, Inc.