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Quality at Mt. Satake,
Jan. 2007 Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety
5/24/04 Billion
Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03
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Shipments reported for December 2006 were approximately 94 million lbs. This is about 23% above the December 2005 figures. Prices prior to today's news were .40 to .50/lb. above where they were in mid September and about .25/lb. above where they were during June, July and August. The 2007 crop has been trading in small volumes at a discount of around .30/lb. below spot prices. SHIPMENTS: 94 million lbs. is a new record for the industry. This season's shipments are up 26% vs. last season and up 10% versus the averages of 2003, 2004, and 2005. Shipments are up significantly in the U.S. as well as Germany, Spain, the U.K., the U.A.E., China, India and several other markets. Below updated shipment chart includes a hypothetical scenario for the remaining months, assuming shipments continue at 10% above the avg. for the past three seasons:  COMMITMENTS: Per the position report the industry is nearly 70% committed or shipped. Despite the larger supply this season the industry has about 7% lower uncommitted inventory versus this time last year. CROP RECEIPTS: Receipts as of December 31st were 1.055 billion lbs., just above the NASS estimate. There are still at least a few shellers with product left to shell and we anticipate there could easily be another 30 million or more lbs. that have not been accounted for yet. CONCLUSION: Most growers have not been anxious sellers lately. They have been engaging in the necessary field activities to produce the highest quality and quantity possible for the coming 2007 crop, to avoid missing opportunities at these historically high price levels. Being so well financed has helped enable more investment to produce the best crop possible and also has contributed to their patient selling. The general short-term outlook is for a continued firm market. Best regards, Paul Ewing Director of Sales Hilltop Ranch, Inc. For more information, contact Paul Ewing directly. Previous Market Reports: ©2007 Hilltop Ranch, Inc. |
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