Current Market Report

Market Report Archive

Quality at Mt. Satake, Jan. 2007

Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety 5/24/04

Ewing Appointed Head of Sales 3/29/04

FDA Approves Qualified Health Claim 7/16/03

Billion Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03

Letter to the trade 1/10/03

Market Report – April 10th, 2007

Shipments reported for March 2007 were approximately 70.5 million lbs.

• Roughly 13.3% below the March 2006 figures.

• Domestic shipments were up 11% (a new record) while exports were off 24.4%

Demand has continued to be slow for much of the time at the handler level. Since early February, pricing has come off .10 to .15/lb. for current crop and .20/lb. for new crop.

SHIPMENTS/DEMAND:

The upward price trend from late September to the beginning of January seemed to cause so much purchasing that many of the areas of the market have continued to be well covered. Most of the buying for India as well as China seems complete for the next few months if not most of the crop year. Demand in the U.S. has been fairly steady and demand from Europe has picked up a little now that much of the positions held there appear to have been liquidated.

This season’s shipments are up 21% vs. last season and up 7% vs. the average of the past three seasons. If shipments continued at the same pace, we’d ship 1.048 billion lbs. while if we just shipped at the average of the past three seasons, shipments would be 1.029 billion. These scenarios would give a carryout in the range of 138 to 157 million lbs.

RECEIPTS & COMMITMENTS:

Receipts as of March 31^st were 1.107 billion lbs. The industry supply (including carryin) is approximately 79% committed or shipped at this time.

THE 2007 CROP:

Compared with previous seasons, there is much more consensus among growers and others in the industry that we will see a larger crop this fall. As one of our customer’s put it, the question now is just “how good is ‘good’?”

Excellent weather during the later part of bloom helped bee hours greatly increase in the northern part of the state (which was behind considerably) and helped set an excellent crop for the pollinator varieties statewide. The expectation for Nonpareil yields overall seem for it to be down 10-15% versus last season, though with larger kernel sizing in this variety as well as additional bearing acreage, the NP crop could still end up similar to what we have this season.

LONG-TERM CONCERNS:

With hive rental prices up 300% since 5 years ago, the bee industry should be able to replace the bee colonies lost to CCD (Colony Collapse Disorder) and other problems. The California almond industry is already using around 80% of the beehives available in the U.S., so this is definitely something to watch for long-term, but we do not think the bee issues impacted the 2007 crop.

We went into this winter with the reservoirs full after a very wet 2006. So far 2007 has been very dry, with snow pack levels running under 40% of normal according to the CA Dept. of Water Resources. While the shortage of water will raise costs significantly for some growers (mainly those on the west side of the southern San Joaquin valley), it should not impact supply for the 2007 crop.

CONCLUSION:

The change in momentum to a cautious buying approach has led to a quiet and slow market. With buyers coming back from Easter vacation, still having uncovered positions, we could see activity pick up, though today’s position report might not encourage buyers to jump in too quickly. We still expect to see NASS’s subjective estimate on May 9.

Best regards,

Previous Market Reports:

©2007 Hilltop Ranch, Inc.