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Quality at Mt. Satake,
Jan. 2007 Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety
5/24/04 Billion
Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03
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Market
Report – July 10th,
2007 Shipments reported for June 2007 were a record 82.3 million lbs - Roughly 2.4% above the June 2006 figures - Domestic shipments were up 15% (another record) & exports were off 4.5% - YTD shipments continue at a record pace, up 15.2% vs. last season. Pricing for current crop “bottomed out” about 3 weeks ago and has increased roughly .15/lb. for most varieties. New crop pricing is up about .05/lb. SHIPMENTS/DEMAND: We believe that current crop pricing practically reaching new crop levels brought in demand for current crop. After this, the momentum itself kept demand coming in and maintained a firm market for the past few weeks. Europe’s short supply on the spot market also helped bring in more demand. A lot of activity took place during June, with roughly 60 million lbs. being sold by the industry during the month, which is also a new record. After all this activity took place, inventory is tighter on current crop and our expectation for the carry out is something closer to 135 million lbs. instead of 150. July shipments are projected to be up from last season and possibly another record . COMMITMENTS: The industry supply (including carry-in) is about 92% committed or shipped at this time, vs. 94% at this time last year. THE 2007 CROP: The NASS objective estimate of 1.33 billion lbs. was close enough to the subjective estimate of 1.31 that it seemed to take away the concern of many buyers and sellers that we would have a surprise of a much larger number. The insect findings in the orchards so far have been low, giving most of us the expectation for a clean crop – which is normal for large yielding crops. The hull split so far has been very erratic but we generally are anticipating the crop to come in about 1-week earlier than last season and a little later than normal. Sizing expectations from NASS differ by variety but they estimate an average of 6% lower kernel weight for all varieties. For some varieties, kernel sizing is expected to be the lowest we’ve seen in 5 years or more. THE OUTLOOK: Regulatory changes taking place for the North American and European markets beginning September 1 could have an impact on the market as we go into the transition to new crop. The U.S. government is trying to work with the E.U. to get approval of a preexport certification program where only random Aflatoxin testing will be done for product shipped under the VASP program, instead of a mandatory 5% testing. We are not sure how smooth the transition will go and we encourage buyers to add an extra week or so of cushion into delivery times. The general expectation is for continued firming on current crop and slight firming on 2007 crop. We believe any firming in 2007 crop pricing may only be short lived and nobody will really know how pricing will develop for the ’07 crop until we see shipment figures this fall. Higher priced competing nuts (including walnuts, pistachios, hazelnuts), the weak USD, increasing awareness of the health benefits of almonds, low prices and other factors should help grow demand for the 2007 crop but its still unknown how quickly and to what level demand will increase. The sentiment among growers, buyers, and others will continue to be important.
Previous Market Reports: ©2007 Hilltop Ranch, Inc. |
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