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Quality at Mt. Satake,
Jan. 2007 Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety
5/24/04 Billion
Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03
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Market Report – November 8th, 2007 Per the Almond Board of California position report: Shipments reported for October 2007 were a record 159.9 million lbs. - Up 6.4% from October 2006 – the previous record - Domestic shipments were down 6% & exports were up 11.5% SHIPMENTS/DEMAND: Expectations for October shipments were very strong, so we believe the shipment volume is fairly neutral news. The biggest shipment increases so far are coming from Spain (where the crop is off significantly) as well as India and the Middle East (where demand is benefiting greatly from higher priced competing nuts). Assuming a supply of 1.33 billion lbs, the industry is about 60% sold (committed) & shipped as of October 31 vs. 54% as of Oct 31 2006. We consider the high level of commitments as more bullish news than the record shipment figure. THE 2007 CROP / RECEIPTS: Receipts as of October 31 were 996 million lbs, up 38% from last season. We estimate that we at Hilltop were about 75% received as of October 31, very similar to last year. If this is correct and reflective of the industry, the crop should end up being close to the NASS estimate of 1.33 billion lbs., but it is still very early to estimate. THE OUTLOOK: With the earlier crop, shelling progressing well and quickly (except for short periods of wet almonds), and with an increase in shelling capacity in the industry, we think that we still could finish shelling earlier despite the larger crop. So far, industry shipments are nearly 18% ahead of last season. Many believe that October shipments could have been stronger had there been more space available on vessels to ship in October, and this demand will be reflected in the Nov. figures – though getting bookings continues to be difficult (if not impossible) in many cases. Long-term concerns about water seem to be the main reason there is very little selling interest for the 2008 crop, which is trading around the same levels as current crop. Following the position report release earlier, pricing remains unchanged so far. For more information, contact Paul Ewing. Previous Market Reports: ©2007 Hilltop Ranch, Inc. |
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