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Quality at Mt. Satake,
Jan. 2007 Statement on Salmonella and Food Safety
5/24/04 Billion
Pound Crop Estimate 7/1/03
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Market Report – December 11th, 2007 The Almond Board of California reports: November 2007 shipments were a record 129.5 million lbs. - Up 16.2% from November 2006 – the previous record - Domestic shipments were up 19% and exports were up 15% - both records With the quiet market following last month’s position report, pricing came off USD 0.10 to 0.20/lb., depending on variety and size. Prices seem to have leveled off following today’s report. SHIPMENTS/DEMAND: Shipment figures for November were inline with overall shipments so far, which are up 17.5% vs. last season. As shown below, shipments are up worldwide:
We believe shipments domestically rebounded well from October as the figures last month suffered as a result of issues and delays related to the new pasteurization regulations. As more domestic end-users have become approved DV users (and thus are able to receive unpasteurized almonds), domestic shipments should be less erratic going forward. THE 2007 CROP / RECEIPTS: Receipts as of November 30 were 1.231 billion lbs, up 31% from last season. Historical averages for receipts point to a crop larger than the estimate. However, other factors need to be pointed out in regards to receipts:
For the crop to be in line with the NASS estimate, we would need to have been 92.6% received as of November 30, higher than we’ve been in recent years. The first three factors listed point to a higher percentage received than normal. We think it is too early to say that the crop will surpass the estimate. THE OUTLOOK: As we mentioned, industry shipments are 17.5% ahead of last season. Expectations are for another solid shipment record with next month’s report. The weak USD and high prices of competing nuts continue to be bullish factors. Most growers have been patient sellers lately. Following today’s report we expect even less grower interest to sell going forward. In quiet times like we have seen recently, the patience in marketing on behalf of almond processors in California will continue to be critical in determining the direction pricing takes going forward. For more information, contact Paul Ewing. Previous Market Reports: ©2007 Hilltop Ranch, Inc. |
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